The next 100 years...

For IRC members who missed our most recent summer book club meeting over George Friedman's The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, we have a recent New Statesman article in which the author lays out some of his predictions and explains his prediction process, which he claims is based purely on geography rather than ability of diplomats or strength of national character.

"Geopolitics assumes two things: first, that human beings organise themselves into units larger than families and that they have a natural loyalty to the things they were born into, the people and the places; second, that the character of a nation is determined to a great extent by geography, as is the relationship between nations. We use the term "geography" broadly. It includes the physical characteristics of a location, but it goes beyond that to look at the effects of a place on individuals and communities. These are the foundation of geopolitical forecasting."

Friedman mentions Machiavelli in the piece and many of his predictions and assessments seem to follow a familiar cold and downright cynical view of power plays among nations. He pooh-poohs ideas of BRIC nations challenging American power while claiming that countries like Poland and Turkey will rise to unprecedented level of influence in world politics. He cuts through hype and propaganda to focus on measurable realities such as GDP, population trends, and the availability of natural resources in making his predictions. Friedman frames his arguments with these facts to make his most incredible predictions seem feasible and logical.

Predictions for the future are often little more than a gamble, especially for subjects so layered and labyrinthine as geopolitics. Fiction from as recently as 50 years ago imagined the year 2009 as one of flying cars, cloud cities, and colonies on the moon. Predictions for the distribution of global power made by the most respected experts in the same era sometimes turned out to be just as inaccurate. Friedman is an expert in his field and makes his arguments confidently, but it is hard to put that simple fact out of mind.

That said, it is a worthy exercise to consider how our actions today will continue to affect the world even after it is inherited by our children's children. It might keep us from simply being reactive, and prompt us to take proactive and preventative measures before adversity arises. We just need to keep in mind that for all the planning in the world, in the next 100 years and beyond events no one could have imagined before will shape the fate of all nations. Friedman himself seems to acknowledge this as he takes on the impossible task of predicting the future:

"Each century, a new constellation of powers forms that might strike observers at the beginning of the century as unthinkable. Let us therefore think about the unthinkable."

You can view the article here.

Japan's Election and its effect on relations with the United States

On August 30^th after a whirlwind campaign the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) won a landslide victory in the nation’s parliamentary elections. The DPJ and its leader Yukio Hatoyama now hold the majority of seats in the lower house of Japan’s parliament and have displaced the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by Prime Minister Taro Aso. During the campaign the DPJ depicted Hatoyama as the “Japanese Obama,” promising expulsion of the old political guard and sweeping changes to domestic and foreign policies. Now that the election is won, analysts are wondering just how many of those promises will be kept and how they will affect Japan’s relationship with the United States.

The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan had been dominant in Japanese government, for all but eleven months, since 1955. During this time, the government became one of the most notoriously bloated and intractable bureaucracies in the world. The LDP-led government buried all lawmaking activity in hours of political ritual and under a burden of precedent, discouraging innovation. However, few challenged the these policies as Japan’s economy skyrocketed in the “bubble” days of the 1980s. Even in more recent years, following the economic collapses of the 1990s and 2008, the conservative LDP continued on as if it was still the 1980s. The parliament passed policies that discouraged immigration, put taxpayer money towards endless (and often needless) public works projects, and paid official visits to Japan’s controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which reveres all Japanese soldiers killed in service, including convicted war criminals. Relations with other East Asian nations such as China and South Korea have been chilly partially based on issues such as Japan’s endorsement of revisionist WWII history textbooks, and Japan’s downright antagonistic relationship with North Korea has been well documented.

Conservative, slow-moving government has been the standard in Japan for 55 years. Why the sudden clamor for change now? The Japanese economy is at its worst ebb since World War II, with unemployment at a record high. The huge companies that Japan was known for in the 20^th century can no longer guarantee lifetime employment, liberal expense accounts, and a pension for all its workers as it could in the 1980’s. Japan’s extremely low birthrate (about 7/1000 in 2008 compared with the US’s 14/1000) has ensured that as baby boomers age out of the workforce and go on government pensions, there are not enough younger workers to pay taxes and keep the system going. A shrinking workforce will also contribute to the further decline of Japan’s economy, setting Japan, the former industrial powerhouse of Asia, in stark contrast with the rise of China. In responding to these crises, the LDP-led government seemed to be spinning its wheels, going through three seemingly interchangeable prime ministers in three years, but otherwise changing little. Enter Hatoyama and the DPJ, promising to put ordinary people ahead of industrial and business interests. The party offered tax cuts, expanded social security, and even monetary support to families in order to encourage families to have more children. Above all, the DPJ cast itself as the mirror opposite of the LPD, even if some election-time promises and predictions contradicted and conflicted with each other. The DPJ promised change, and the Japanese are ready to embrace it.

Foreign policy experts are now scrambling to predict how Japan’s new ruling political party will conduct relations with the outside world. Without historical precedent (the DPJ is untested as the ruling political party) experts can only base their predictions on the DPJ’s campaign promises. In the experts’ predictions, Japan’s relationship with the United States is likely to change the most dramatically. Japan has long been a key ally of the United States and the Japanese islands are home to several US military bases. The bases are essential strategic locations for American operations in East Asia. The LDP-led government has long been supportive of the US, even during the Bush Administration when world criticism of the United States and its foreign policy reached a zenith. During this time, Japan offered money and manpower to American-led campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq despite a constitutional ban against engaging in military operations, an action critics branded as hypocritical on the parts of both Japan and the US. Hatoyama has said that he will put an end to this type of military support and reassess official acceptance of US military on Japanese soil. He also has stated that he intends to pursue better relations with other East Asian nations such as China.

These are bold proposals. However, the lack of detail and specifics, coupled with official backpedaling and hedging, lessen the impact. Hatoyama has been quick to assert that he wishes to maintain a close relationship with the United States while he pursues these closer relationships with nations like China. This is a good idea. A continued close relationship is advantageous for both the US and Japan. Japan remains a key strategic outpost for American forces in Asia. Without an official standing army, Japan has appealed to the US and the UN for help in dealing with North Korea as Kim Jong Il threatens the country with missile tests and nuclear aspirations. Japanese commercial interests enjoy a unique American “umbrella” over business transactions abroad. The Obama administration would welcome a more compromising Japanese government, more open to dealing with China and negotiating with North Korea, in place of the rigid, stubborn tactics of the LDP. However, that is as much certainty as experts can have about Japan’s foreign policy in the near future.

The DPJ now faces a population that is impatient for a fulfillment of campaign promises. Hatoyama has promised “change,” but no one is holding up a solid plan or agenda for the DPJ’s first days in power. No one can even determine where the funding for the DPJ’s proposed expanded social welfare system will come from as Japan faces enormous debt and a shrinking pool of taxpayers. The deposed LDP will not disappear anytime soon; no doubt the party will launch into endless criticism of the DPJ and seek to regain the majority of seats in the Japanese parliament. Assuming that the DPJ can stay in power long enough to make new policies, it is unclear if the party can wade through enough domestic upheaval to even consider overhauling foreign policy. All experts can do, at least in these first few weeks, is watch, wait, and hope for the best.

Reminder: IRC Upcoming events!

This is a reminder to all IRC members and the public of our upcoming IRC-sponsored events.

First up:

"Human Trafficking: Hidden in Plain Sight" Sept 1st, 7:00 PM at All Souls Unitarian Universalist Church, 4501 Walnut, Kansas City MO

Timea Eva Nagy was an accomplished young professional in her native Hungary. When she immigrated to Canada in 1998 looking for a summer job, she found herself stripped of her identification and pressed into servitude. Though she eventually escaped, she spent the next six years working to piece her own life back together and bring her captors to justice. She will tour Kansas City with retired FBI agent Jeff Lanza, speaking about her experiences and calling for more education and prevention of human trafficking.

For more on Timea Eva Nagy and her new book Walk With Me, Memoirs of a Sex Slave Survivor, click here.

Next up on the calendar

IRC 26th Annual Awards Banquet, Monday Oct. 5th, Reception at 6:00 PM, Dinner at 7:00 PM at the Hyatt Regency Crown Center in Kansas City.

You can click on tags marked "Awards Banquet" in the blog for more on our speakers.

Reserve your spots now! Visit irckc.org to register today!

Upcoming event: Concert for Global Peace

The International Visitor's Council of Kansas City will host a Concert for Global Peace this upcoming Saturday, August 29th, from 7:30-9:30. Musicians from around the world will take part in this classical music concert.

The KCIVC is a nonprofit in Kansas City focused on "person-to-person" diplomacy.

For more information, check the KCIVC website.

http://www.kcivc.org/

Presidents Mubarak and Obama meet

Sameh Shoukry, Ambassador to the United States from the Arab Republic of Egypt, was IRC's guest on May 14. His address, "Challenges in the Middle East," provided an update and important perspective on this critical region of the world. It is therefore with heightened interest that we note Egyptian President Mubarak's visit to Washington, DC, and meeting with President Obama. Here are some of the news reports: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/19/world/middleeast/19prexy.html?scp=3&sq=mubarak&st=cse; http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-08/19/content_11909581.htm; http://www.voanews.com/english/2009-08-18-voa39.cfm.

Ethnic Enrichment Festival this weekend

The Ethnic Enrichment Festival (not related to the IRC but still worthwhile) will take place this weekend in Swope Park.

The Ethnic Enrichment Festival is thrown every year by the Ethnic Enrichment Commission of Kansas City to celebrate the great diversity of Kansas City. The festival features food and entertainment from nearly fifty countries.

Adult admission is $3.00, children under 12 enter free.

For more information, see the festival's website.

C. Fred Bergsten's Keynote Address Topic Released

We've received more information about Dr. C. Fred Bergsten's keynote address, which he will give at our Awards Banquet on October 6th. Dr. Bergsten is the head of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC. The title of the address will be:

The World Economy After the Crisis

Dr. Bergsten also had this to say about his speech:

"I promise some controversial ideas, based on a major project that we have launched here at the Institute on the longer run implications of the recent and current turbulence."

Intrigued? Register today to attend our 26th Annual Awards banquet to hear from Dr. Bergsten, along with Dr. William Neaves of the Stowers Institute and Danny O'Neill of the Roasterie.

Our Awards Banquet will take place on Monday, October 6th, with a reception at 6:00 PM and the dinner and program beginning at 7:00 PM, at the Hyatt Regency Crown Center (Map)

Proceeds from our Awards banquet finance our programming for the entire year! Show us your support while educating yourself about our economy and its future.

Media's "Trivialization" threatens Secretary Clinton's credibility during vital missions

Current Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, despite a respectable presidential campaign last year and appointment by the Obama administration to her current position, finds herself facing the same old undermining from the media. The irony is painful as Clinton works to end systematic abuse of women across the world while being the target of jokes and innuendos in what should be respectable news and media outlets.

Judith Warner of the New York Times notes that in recent weeks media outlets are quick to mock Clinton now as much as ever. The ceaseless jokes about her temper, her hair and body, and the intimate details of her marriage send a poor message to the rest of the world. How is Clinton meant to motivate any of these countries she is currently visiting, where horrific abuse of women is a dire fact of life, to change when she is mocked and derided in the global media for such petty reasons?

Hillary Fights a Tide of Trivialization (NYTimes.com)

UPDATE: The excellent Latoya Peterson of Racialicious.com and Jezebel.com tackles many of these issues in a more in-depth article:

Hillary Clinton, Women's Rights and Colluding With Global Misogyny

Former IRC President Keith Alm named Private Director of the Year

The National Association of Corporate Directors has named former IRC President Keith Alm Private Director of the Year. As Director of the Follett Corporation, Mr. Alm "balanced the development of a professional, accountable, and highly valuable structure that is also sensitive to the needs of a family-run organization."

Congratulations, Keith!

See the full press release.

Content and Contributions

We hope that you are enjoying our blog so far. It is very much still a work in progress. The IRC is striving to make this blog interesting and relevant to its members. Help us out and tell us your ideas!

-Got a link, event, or other tip that you want to share with the IRC?
-Written an article or other original material relevant to world affairs that you'd like to contribute to the blog?
-Active in the IRC and want us to link to your blog or website?

Let us know in the comments...

More on C. Fred Bergsten, 2009 Distinguished Service Award for International Statesmanship Winner

Those who attend the IRC's Annual Awards Banquet on Oct. 5th will have the chance to see C. Fred Bergsten, one of the world's leading authorities on international monetary policy and trade. Dr. Bergsten is the Director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington DC. He has held this position since the Peterson Institute's founding in 1981.

From the Peterson Institute's website:

"Dr. Bergsten has been the most widely quoted think-tank economist in the world over the eight-year period 1997–2005. He testifies frequently before Congress and appears often on television. He was ranked 37 in the top 50 "Who Really Moves the Markets?" (Fidelity Investment's Worth), with Alan Greenspan ranked first, and as "one of the ten people who can change your life" in USA Today, along with the inventor of the World Wide Web and the discoverer of ozone layer depletion."

A selection of Dr. Bergsten's recent appearances:
PBS Nightly Business Report, 7/7/09 (Transcript)

Restoring Global Financial Stability: The Asia Pacific's Essential Role 6/09

C. Fred Bergsten: Restoring Global Financial Stability: The Asia Pacific's Essential Role from East-West Center on Vimeo.

Inside Look - Latest on the G-20, 5/1/09



Dr. Bergsten's articles for Foreign Affairs can be found here

Amazon.com page for his latest books, The Long-Term International Economic Position of the United States, and China's Rise: Challenges and Opportunities

To register to attend the 2009 Annual Awards Banquet, call us at (816) 221-4204 or visit us online.

The IRC is now on YouTube!

Our foray into social media continues today as the IRC makes the leap to YouTube! Enjoy the video and let us know what you think in the comments....

Mark your calendars: The IRC Annual Awards Banquet October 5, 2009

Monday, October 5, 2009

Reception 6:00 p.m.
Dinner and Program 7:00 p.m.
Hyatt Regency Crown Center

IRC is pleased to announce that C. Fred Bergsten, director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, will receive the Distinguished Service Award for International Statesmanship at IRC's annual Awards Banquet on October 5. Bergsten has served as Assistant Secretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department and has been director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics since its foundation in 1981. The Peterson Institute is the only major research institution in the United States devoted to international economic issues. Bergsten is one of the world's leading authorities on international monetary policy and trade (National Journal, Sep 8, 2007). According to Thomas Hoenig, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, “Dr. Bergsten has built a global reputation on broad experience in international economics. His appearance is a wonderful opportunity for Kansas Citians to learn his insight on important issues.”

Receiving the Award for Academic Leadership is the Stowers Institute and William Neaves, its president & CEO. Neaves has recruited scientists from around the world to relocate to Kansas City. The Stowers Institute, opened in 2000, is one of the most innovative biomedical research organizations in the world, with 25 independent research projects led by scientists with academic appointments.

Danny O’Neill, President & Owner of The Roasterie, will receive the Award for Contributions to International Commerce & Community Service. The Roasterie gives back to communities they touch by supporting local projects to help farmers, including projects in Brazil, Costa Rica and Rwanda. The Roasterie recently featured in the July issue of O, The Oprah Magazine.

Presenting Sponsor Table $5,000
Premier Seating/Table for Ten/Table Sign
Name and Logo used in pre-event publicity
Recognition from Podium/ Program Listing as Presenting Sponsor

Sponsor Table $2,000
Priority Seating/ Table for Ten/Table Sign
Recognition from Podium/Program Listing as Gold Sponsor

Table Host $1,000
Table for Ten/Table Sign/Program Listing as Table Host

Individual Seating $100 per person

To register, please complete our online registration form, or call 816-221-4204.

Upcoming event: Human Trafficking: Hidden in Plain Sight

September 1
7:00 p.m.
All Souls Unitarian Universalist Church
4501 Walnut, KCMO

The Thirteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution outlawed slavery in America, yet it exists today, with modern day bondage consisting of isolation, threats and coercion. There are 15,000 victims in the United States alone who generate three billion dollars of profit for their captors. Yet most Americans are unaware of the extent or even the existence of the form of modern day slavery called Human Trafficking. It has been an unseen, unheard and unreported crime. The victims are all around us, unknown to most; they are, paradoxically, hidden in plain sight.

Jeff Lanza, retired FBI agent who investigated human trafficking in Kansas City, and Timea Eva Nagy, sex slave survivor, speaker and social advocate from Toronto, Canada, will speak on the same stage to raise public awareness of this crime epidemic. Lanza was an FBI Agent for over 20 years. During his tenure at the FBI, he investigated corruption, corporate fraud, money laundering, computer crime and organized crime. He served as head of internal security of the Kansas City FBI and a regional spokesman. Timea was a sex slave in Toronto, Canada beginning in 1998 after she arrived from Budapest, Hungary in the hopes of fulfilling a summer position. She was kidnapped, controlled, and kept under horrible conditions and forced to work in the sex trade in Toronto and surrounding areas. Her new book, Walk With Me, a Memoir of a Sex Slave Worker, is a full accounting of her story and her road to wholeness and is set to be released fall of 2009.

$10 members/$15 non-members

To register, visit irckc.org or email info@irckc.org

Upcoming event: Summer Book Club 2009

Explore the world's past, present and future with IRC's Summer Book Club. IRC will be reading three books this summer: 1491: New Revelations of the Americas Before Columbus (June), The Bookseller of Kabul (July), and The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. This Book Club is free but open to current IRC members only. Space will be limited to 30 attendees per book, so register early to ensure your spot! IRC recommends Rainy Day Books for your book purchases.


August 20
The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century
by George Friedman

7:00 - 8:30 p.m.
Kauffman Foundation -- Brush Creek Room
Book discussion moderated by Mike Wood, retired professor at the Henry W. Bloch School of Business and Public Administration at UMKC.

To register, please send an email to Sarah Bader at irc@irckc.org that includes your name, phone number, preferred email address, and book club sessions you would like to attend. You may also telephone 816-221-4204 with the same information. Space is limited, but there will be a waiting list in case of cancellations. Please note that you must be a current member of IRC to participate. If you are unsure of your member status, please feel free to inquire via email.