The next 100 years...

For IRC members who missed our most recent summer book club meeting over George Friedman's The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, we have a recent New Statesman article in which the author lays out some of his predictions and explains his prediction process, which he claims is based purely on geography rather than ability of diplomats or strength of national character.

"Geopolitics assumes two things: first, that human beings organise themselves into units larger than families and that they have a natural loyalty to the things they were born into, the people and the places; second, that the character of a nation is determined to a great extent by geography, as is the relationship between nations. We use the term "geography" broadly. It includes the physical characteristics of a location, but it goes beyond that to look at the effects of a place on individuals and communities. These are the foundation of geopolitical forecasting."

Friedman mentions Machiavelli in the piece and many of his predictions and assessments seem to follow a familiar cold and downright cynical view of power plays among nations. He pooh-poohs ideas of BRIC nations challenging American power while claiming that countries like Poland and Turkey will rise to unprecedented level of influence in world politics. He cuts through hype and propaganda to focus on measurable realities such as GDP, population trends, and the availability of natural resources in making his predictions. Friedman frames his arguments with these facts to make his most incredible predictions seem feasible and logical.

Predictions for the future are often little more than a gamble, especially for subjects so layered and labyrinthine as geopolitics. Fiction from as recently as 50 years ago imagined the year 2009 as one of flying cars, cloud cities, and colonies on the moon. Predictions for the distribution of global power made by the most respected experts in the same era sometimes turned out to be just as inaccurate. Friedman is an expert in his field and makes his arguments confidently, but it is hard to put that simple fact out of mind.

That said, it is a worthy exercise to consider how our actions today will continue to affect the world even after it is inherited by our children's children. It might keep us from simply being reactive, and prompt us to take proactive and preventative measures before adversity arises. We just need to keep in mind that for all the planning in the world, in the next 100 years and beyond events no one could have imagined before will shape the fate of all nations. Friedman himself seems to acknowledge this as he takes on the impossible task of predicting the future:

"Each century, a new constellation of powers forms that might strike observers at the beginning of the century as unthinkable. Let us therefore think about the unthinkable."

You can view the article here.